Wednesday, April 9, 2008

GBPUSD bounces from x.xx15 and x.xx85 values

I am glued to my monitor when I am trading so I've seen many times that if GBP breaks zero levels seems it will bounce from +15 or -15 (x.xx15 or x.xx85). Look at the picture of the 9.04.2008 news release for cable.
I entered the trade at 1.9696 and immidiately put my limit order to 1.9715. So less than 10 seconds I grabbed 19 pips and after that the price returned to 1.9700.
So the same situation seems to be with x.xx85 level. I can say that the probability of the price will bounce from these levels is high but I can not tell anyone the exact probability because I have no high quality tick data for a large period of time. If anyone has such a data - please calculate this probability.
I do not recommend you to enter the trades at these levels because I did not run the statistical analysis and the trades against the hour trend seem to be more risky but these levels are good to fix your profit.